Pegah Hamedani Raja

The Asiatic Houbara bustard, Chlamydotis macqueenii, is a rare bird of the family Otididae. This bird inhabits sandy and stony semi-deserts and is adapted to arid conditions where trees are absent and both shrub cover and herb layer are sparse. Asiatic houbara has undergone rapid population declines over three generations (20 years) owing largely to unsuitable hunting levels, as well as habitat loss and has therefore been >Isfahan, central Iran. In this study, an influence diagram, representing houbara bustard habitat variables and the relationships between them was developed. The influence diagram was then converted to an initial    where each node represents a set of states and probabilities. Quantification of variables relationships was performed in Netica 4.16 software. Different information resources including published literatures, expert knowledge, interview with farmers and local people, and data obtained from field surveys were used for different stages of model development. The behaviour of the model was explored using sensitivity analysis. Model evaluation was accomplished by application of hypothetical data and Houbara actual presence data in the study area (59422.3 km²). Security and food availability were recognized as the most important variables affecting Houbara bustard habitat suitability at landscape scale. The importance of other influencing variables was also determined through the sensitivity analysis procedure. Model evaluation applying houbara presence data, confirmed the accuracy of the model's predictions. The present model predicts changes in wintering habitat suitability of Houbara bustard by changes on the landscape. The model can therefore be used as a valuable tool for predicting future changes in Houbara habitat suitability and can assist in setting conservation priorities for the species